28 September 2024

A Flawed Chess960 Study

A chess study is a composed position which illustrates some unexpected theme. It is usually a position which could arise naturally from a game between two skilled players. This distinguishes it from a chess problem, which is based on a composed position that is extremely unlikely to arise in a real game. An academic study is something completely different.

When was the last time you saw a research paper based on a study of chess960? There must have been others, but this is the first one I can remember seeing. Titled Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Chess960 Result and Develop Opening Themes (arxiv.org; 'submitted on 29 Oct 2023'), it lists its authors as:-

Shreyan Deo, DPS Vasant Kunj, Delhi, India • Nishchal Dwivedi, Department of Basic Science and Humanities, SVKM’s NMIMS Mukesh Patel School of Technology Management & Engineering, Mumbai, India

The 'Abstract' offers a useful overview. In its entirety it says,

This work focuses on the analysis of Chess 960, also known as Fischer Random Chess, a variant of traditional chess where the starting positions of the pieces are randomized. The study aims to predict the game outcome using machine learning techniques and develop an opening theme for each starting position.

The first part of the analysis utilizes machine learning models to predict the game result based on certain moves in each position. The methodology involves segregating raw data from PGN files [NB: CCRL was the source] into usable formats and creating datasets comprising approximately 500 games for each starting position. Three machine learning algorithms -- KNN Clustering, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosted Trees -- have been used to predict the game outcome.

To establish an opening theme, the board is divided into five regions: center, white kingside, white queenside, black kingside, and black queenside. The data from games played by top engines in all 960 positions is used to track the movement of pieces in the opening. By analysing the change in the number of pieces in each region at specific moves, the report predicts the region towards which the game is developing. These models provide valuable insights into predicting game outcomes and understanding the opening theme in Chess 960.

Keywords: Chess 960 [Chess960], Fischer Random Chess, machine learning, game outcome prediction, opening theme, KNN Clustering, Neural Networks, Gradient Boosted Trees.

Note: Trying to see just by looking at the snapshot of an evolved game how accurately we can predict who will win

The 16-page paper is interesting for many reasons. I extracted the section headers to create a table of contents:-

1. Introduction

2. Methodology
2.1. Segregation of Data
2.2. Visualising Chess Positons as Numbers
2.3. Predicting the Outcome
2.4. Developing an Opening Theme

2. Modelling [should be '3.'?]
3.1. KNN Clustering
3.2. Random Forest
3.3. Gradient Boosted Trees

4. Result
4.1. Outcome Prediction
4.2. Theme Analysis

5. Discussion
5.1. Discussing the Accuracy of the Predictions
5.1.1. Comparing the Different Data Sets
5.1.2. Comparing the Different Machine Learning Models
5.1.3. Disparity in the Accuracies of Certain Starting Positions
5.1.4. Possible Reasons for Low Accuracy Rate
5.2. Discussing the Theme Analysis and Its Importance

6. Conclusion

7. Future Developments & Limitations

8. References [eight total]

9. Appendix

The section '9. Appendix' starts,

This section traces the opening theme of each individual starting position. The heading provided is in the form X_Y, where X represents the region in which White pieces tend to develop, and Y represents the region in which Black pieces develop.

This is very useful in individually finding out how each specific starting position should be played. For example, the position BBNNQRKR should be played by the players such that White attacks the Black Queenside whereas Black attacks the White Kingside.

Why choose SP032 BBNNQRKR as an example? Because it's the study's first position in the first group of positions, all of which are under the header 'Black Q Side_White K Side'. A useful diagram ('Figure 1: Regions of the Chess Board') from the study helps to explain how it sees the different sections of the board.

Unfortunately, the explanation ('should be played by the players such that...') of BBNNQRKR is dubious:-

  • 'White attacks the Black Queenside'
  • 'Black attacks the White Kingside'

The position BBNNQRKR clearly shows that the two Bishops ('BB') on the Queenside are attacking the castling pieces ('RKR') bunched together on the Kingside. That indicates how both sides will proceed. How should White attack the Black Queenside? With the Knights ('NN')?

At this point it's worth remembering that at the start of each game both players have identical piece placements. The difference is that one side moves first and thereby has a natural initiative.

The traditional start position (SP518 RNBQKBNR), is grouped under 'Black Q Side_Centre', meaning:-

  • 'White attacks the Black Queenside' [as in the previous example]
  • 'Black attacks the center'

Here it's worth remembering that White has a choice of first moves (1.e4, 1.d4, etc.) with different strategies for developing the pieces. The other 959 start positions also offer a choice of strategies. I can't remember playing many (correspondence) chess960 games where White has a first move that is clearly better (NB: 'SP864 BBQRKRNN' & 'SP868 QBBRKRNN' are not clear). Is it possible to group the subsequent developments of different first moves for one start position under a single header, e.g. 'White attacks... _ Black attacks...' ?

The rest of the paper is equally unconvincing, although there are large portions that I didn't understand. One key illustration ('Figure 3') is incomprehensible because the column headers are clipped to be identical.

An important discussion starts with '5.1. Discussing the Accuracy of the Predictions'. It says,

The results of the machine learning models were quite surprising yet also logical. All the predictions were only [around] 40% accurate, which is only slightly better than randomly guessing an outcome and getting it right, the probability of which is 33.33% (as there are only 3 outcomes possible).

Another section, '5.1.4. Possible Reasons for Low Accuracy Rate', offers several 'possible reasons', but ignores the most obvious. The methodology of the study might well be seriously flawed.

31 August 2024

Multi-Millionaires Compete for Chess960 Aliases

You've read the story, The Magnus Merry-Go-Round (July 2024), where I quoted Chessbase:-
2024-07-25: Magnus Carlsen raises $12 million for Freestyle Chess Grand Slam (chessbase.com) • 'Magnus Carlsen, investor Jan Henric Buettner and VC Left Lane Capital launched a new company to establish a tournament series that aims to revolutionise the world of chess.'

Now see the Chessbase India video, Jan Buettner on Freestyle Chess seeing a historic shift with US $12 Million Funding (chessbase.com). Most of that post is a transcript of the video.


Jan Buettner along with Magnus Carlsen raise US$ 12 million (Rs.100 crores) for Freestyle Chess (37:08) • '[Published on] Jul 26, 2024'

The description said,

Jan Buettner is a successful entrepreneur who has been part of many successful projects. In February 2024, he launched the Freestyle Chess format with Magnus Carlsen and the first tournament took place in Weissenhaus, Germany. Now after 9 months since this first event Jan has raised US$ 12 million (Rs.100 crores) for the Freestyle Chess League with Left Lane Capital. In this interview with IM Sagar Shah, Jan speaks about how the funds were raised, and what is the future of Freestyle Chess.

The video includes timestamps for segments of the interview.

***

Hang on ... the Sinquefield Cup came and went and there was no 9LX (aka freestyle chess, aka chess960) event? Did Rex Sinquefield abandon the field to Jan Buettner? Not at all! In Maurice Ashley to Return to Commentary for Chess 9LX! (youtube.com; Saint Louis Chess Club; only reference to 9LX in the playlist), we learn that a 9LX event will be held after the Saint Louis Chess Conference ('Education | Research | Community'), 24-26 October.

We'll just have to be patient until then. For the previous 9LX post on this blog, see 2023 Champions Showdown, Videos (September 2023).

27 July 2024

The Magnus Merry-Go-Round

A few months ago we had What Goes Around... (April 2024). Now we have the other half: '...Comes Around'. From the two top chess news sources:-
  • 2024-07-25: $12 Million Raised For 'Revolutionary' Freestyle Series Of Tournaments (chess.com; PeterDoggers) • '$12 million in funding has been secured to organize a series of "Freestyle" chess tournaments similar to the first event held in February of this year in Weissenhaus, Germany. Initiators GM Magnus Carlsen and Jan Henric Buettner joined forces with Harley Miller, CEO and Managing Partner of Left Lane Capital, and announced the series today.'

  • 2024-07-25: Magnus Carlsen raises $12 million for Freestyle Chess Grand Slam (chessbase.com) • 'Magnus Carlsen, investor Jan Henric Buettner and VC Left Lane Capital launched a new company to establish a tournament series that aims to revolutionise the world of chess. The event series will showcase the world's best chess players in a new format which aims to be attractive for media, spectators and consumers. The participants will be nine super GMs hand-picked by Magnus Carlsen.'

Hand-picked by GM Carlsen! It's Alekhine - Capablanca all over again. Does Hans Niemann play 960?

29 June 2024

2024 Chess.com Chess960 Championship

The previous post on this blog, What Goes Around... (April 2024), was inspired by a Yahoo post on my main blog. Ditto for this current post. The new post on my main blog was Money Makes the Yahoos Go Round (June 2024), which started,
Of the 100 chess stories returned by our favorite news source for the month of June, 12 stories were about the Cairns Cup.

The sole chess960 story was:-

  • 2024-06-23: Duda Scores 9/9, Caruana Misses Out As Eight Qualify For Chess960 Finals (chess.com; Colin_McGourty) • 'GM Jan-Krzysztof Duda tops the eight-player lineup for the Finals of the 2024 Chess.com Chess960 Championship after finishing the first qualifier on a perfect 9/9 score. He'll be joined for the knockout event by GMs Vladimir Fedoseev, Raunak Sadhwani, Christopher Yoo, Denis Lazavik, Andrew Hong, Sam Sevian, and Benjamin Bok. GM Fabiano Caruana played all eight qualifiers, but the stars never aligned in his favor as he finished second an incredible four times.'

For the report on the finals, see Fedoseev Wins 2024 Chess960 Championship With Queen Sac In Final (chess.com; AnthonyLevin). For the record of the full tournament, see Chess.com Chess960 Championship 2024 (chess.com).

27 April 2024

What Goes Around...

In a recent post on my main blog, Candidate Yahoos (April 2024), I noted,
Of the 99 chess stories returned by Google News for the month of April, 27 were about the just concluded Candidates tournament (CT).

One of the non-CT stories related to a report from the previous post on this chess960 blog, Chessbase and Its 180 on 960 (March 2024). Specifically,

2024-03-16: Carlsen, Buettner Unveil Extravagant Chess960 Grand Slam Tour Across 5 Continents (chess.com; TarjeiJS; comments)

The latest report informed,

  • 2024-04-26: Carlsen-led Freestyle Chess event in India on hold (hindustantimes.com; Susan Ninan) • 'The Chess960 event that was originally scheduled to take place in India in November hasn’t found takers yet, forcing Jan Buettner to shelve plans for now.'

For more about possible reasons behind the lack of investors, see:-

For example, one comment said,

There is no way any popular chess venues are going to commit to a freestyle chess tournament in November. They are busy bidding for the World Championship match.

So the victory of Indian GM Gukesh in the CT interfered with hopes for a chess960 tournament in India. Why am I not surprised?

30 March 2024

Chessbase and Its 180 on 960

The previous post, Freestyle Goats Might Return (February 2024), ended on a highly optimistic note:-
We can look forward to much top-level chess960.

In the intervening month we've had a couple of equally optimistic follow-ups from Chessbase:-

The news was confirmed by a (former?) Carlsen confidant, now writing for Chess.com:-

Chessbase.com has come a long way in the six years since the site posted an article that I panned in Purported Problems with Chess960 (April 2018). My post started,

That title is taken from a recent article by Frederic Friedel of Chessbase: The problem with Chess960 (chessbase.com; February 2018). Let's cut to the chase. The problem with chess960 is that there is no problem with chess960.

So why did Chessbase make a 180-degree turn? Maybe it's a case of:-

If you can't beat them, join them!

I suspect it's more a case of:-

Money talks and nobody walks!

Whatever the reason, the world's leading chess database company has also started running articles on chess960 opening theory:-

I don't agree with all five 'Opening Tips'. For example, the first of the five is

Introduce the queen into the game early

That's much too categorical for me. I once wrote a post about a game of mine titled Activating the Corner Queen (September 2013). I reached the conclusion, 'Black was always in command and eventually won. The early activation of Black's Queen was the deciding factor.'

I could give plenty of counter-examples where a Queen came out too early and was harrassed by the opponent's minor pieces, just like beginners are warned against after the traditional start position. A more nuanced tip would be something like, 'The decision when and where to develop the Queen is even more consequential than similar decisions for the other pieces'. Chess960base, anyone?

24 February 2024

Freestyle Goats Might Return

Continuing with last week's post, Carlsen Wins First Major Chess960 Event of 2024 (February 2024), here's a Youtube stream showing the games from the final day.


Freestyle Chess G.O.A.T. Challenge - Final (3:09:15) • 'Streamed live on Feb 16, 2024'

For streams from the previous days, see @freestyle_chess/streams (youtube.com). The 'About' page informs,

The primary focus of the competition is on showcasing the personalities and extraordinary skills of Super Grandmasters, with Magnus Carlsen himself handpicking seven world-class challengers.

Handpicked challengers? Is that why two of Carlsen's most dangerous opponents -- GM Nakamura and GM Wesley So -- weren't playing? Whatever the reason, in Jan Henric Buettner: "My dream is a Grand Slam of Freestyle Chess G.O.A.T. Challenges on five continents" (chessbase.com; 'Press release'), we learn,

It was also revealed that Hikaru Nakamura, the reigning World Fischer Random Chess Champion, has an "extended invitation," so the American top GM and streamer will likely join the field in 2025. He had to decline for the first event because he wanted to prepare differently for the upcoming Candidates Tournament.

If this comes to fruition, we can look forward to much top-level chess960. Thanks, Weissenhaus people, for a great show!

17 February 2024

Carlsen Wins First Major Chess960 Event of 2024

In last month's only post on this blog, Freestyle Goats Challenge (January 2024), I closed it saying,
The official site is Weissenhaus - Freestyle Chess G.O.A.T. Challenge (freestyle-chess.com). I know that I'll be coming out of hibernation to spectate.

I didn't find the opportunity to spectate, so I'll make up for that lapse by documenting the event: Carlsen Beats Caruana To Win Freestyle Chess G.O.A.T. Challenge (chess.com; Colin_McGourty; 'Day 8'). For his final article on the same event, the same Chess.com journalist produced the following list.


2024-02-17: Nine Things We Learned - Freestyle Chess G.O.A.T. Challenge 2024 (chess.com; Colin_McGourty; links to previous articles: 'Day 1-8')

Every one of those nine points is worth further discussion, but I'm not the right person to discuss them, at least for now. Also worth a mention is Tag: Freestyle Chess G.O.A.T. Challenge (chessbase.com), with links to 14 Chessbase articles by various writers. A few of those articles are of considerable background interest, but they will have to wait for another time.

20 January 2024

Freestyle Goats Challenge

I admit it; I just can't stop. In my previous post, Sayonara? (December 2023), I wrote,
Now I'm going back into hibernation, although I won't rule out an occasional post if I have something to say about a subject.

The hibernation can wait for now, because an upcoming event deserves to be promoted. From two of the top chess news sources:-

  • 2023-12-01: Freestyle Super Tournament in Germany - Seven top players challenge Magnus Carlsen (chessbase.com; Press Release) • 'From 9 to 16 February 2024, the Weissenhaus Private Nature Luxury Resort on the Baltic Sea in Germany will be the venue for a super tournament in "Freestyle Chess", also known as Chess960. Seven world-class players, including world champion Ding Liren and Vincent Keymer, will challenge the G.O.A.T (Greatest of all Times), Magnus Carlsen, in a Chess960 tournament with classical time control.'

  • 2023-12-04: Carlsen, Ding, Caruana In New $200,000 Classical Fischer-Random Event (chess.com; TarjeiJS) • 'Freestyle Chess G.O.A.T Challenge will take place February 9-16 and marks Carlsen's first battle with his successor, World Champion GM Ding Liren, since the Chinese grandmaster took over the throne.'

Freestyle? It's becoming a rite of passage for a new chess960 sponsor : invent a new C960/FRC name for a new tournament. I'll add it to the names at the top of the blog. The more the merrier! From the 'Press Release':-

In addition to Magnus Carlsen (33) and Ding Liren (31), the following six players will compete: Fabiano Caruana (31, USA/Italy, #2 in the world), Levon Aronian (41, USA/Armenia, #4 of all times), Alireza Firouzja (20, France/Iran, #5 in the world), Dommaraju Gukesh (17, India, top world rank #9), Nodirbek Abdusattorov (19, Uzbekistan, world rank #25), and Germany's number one, Vincent Keymer (19, top world rank #18).

Where are GMs Hikaru Nakamura and Wesley So? I imagine it's a coincidence that both were threats to Carlsen in high-visibility chess960 matches. But enough nitpicking -- the show must go on!

The official site is Weissenhaus - Freestyle Chess G.O.A.T. Challenge (freestyle-chess.com). I know that I'll be coming out of hibernation to spectate.